Is the Martha’s Vineyard Housing Market really that Bad? I Don’t Think So

Looking at the overall picture of the housing crisis, perspective and understanding has been lost as a result of what is essentially a localized crisis in 4 states: California, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona. According to statistics from City-Data.com, 54 of the 101 cities with the largest population increase from 2000 - 2006 are located inside California, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona - the four states most affected by sharply decreasing home values. These four states saw the largest population influx between 2000 and 2006 triggering the need for more housing supply and with that demand, prices started to go up at 15% or more annually.

Anyone who has been in the real estate investment business knows that what goes up must come down. Many mortgage lenders bolstered by the above average appreciation rate year after year irresponsibly let their guard down, lowering lending standards and granting all sorts of exotic loans they should have known could not be repaid. Opportunity and greed propelled builders, real estate licensees, lenders and investors to push the envelope until the bubble burst. Today there are 15 states struggling to correct themselves; that is 30% of the country with 37% of the population and approximately 4 million problem mortgages. That breaks down to 7 percent of all mortgages owned in the U.S. Sure, you hear numbers reported by RealtyTrac, a foreclosure reporting service, stating one in every 464 U.S. households were served with a foreclosure filing in July --- 272,171 households, but the deepest concentration of those foreclosures are in California, Nevada, Florida, and Arizona. In Cape Coral-Fort Meyers, Florida alone, one in every 64 households received a foreclosure notice in July. On Martha’s Vineyard, RealtyTrac is reporting only 34 properties in Pre-foreclosure, Foreclosure or REO status. There are approximately 14,000 households on Martha’s Vineyard. The current inventory of properties for sale is less than 800 properties. Does anyone remember the early nineties? This is nothing compared to back then, but business is so much more difficult today because everyone is afraid of doing the wrong thing. Most of the public continues to believe the media, and the media continues to fuel the fear factor because, “misery sells newspapers”.

Not having a clear picture of the market has resulted in a lack of movement stalling the market, except for those buyers who ignore the media negativity and know how to read the numbers. I believe we are about to see a significant paradigm shift being expressed in two ways. Frustrated sellers are finally taking a hard look at their pricing realizing that their past strategy has not worked and has done them more harm than good. They are listening to their seller agents and cutting prices to the bone, well below assessed value in many cases. Sellers who have refused to price their properties realistically for today’s market and were never really sincere about selling, are taking their properties off the market. They think the market is about to turn around and prices will start to inch back up within the next 4 to 9 months. They can wait. I think this will paint a clear uncluttered picture for consumers who have been anxiously waiting with pent-up desire to get into this market but have been unsure and confused. They will finally realize now is the time to buy. They want to buy!

This fall, mortgage rates are forecasted to go up as much as a quarter percentage point according to Jim Vogel, an analyst at FTN Financial Capital Markets. This prediction is a result of Fannie Mae reporting a second-quarter loss of $2.3 billion and their prediction of more heavy losses resulting from the home-mortgage defaults and price declines centered primarily in California
(-28%), Florida (-17%), Nevada and Arizona. Fannie Mae has already said they will stop buying alt-A loans by the end of 2008. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to be limited in their ability to buy and guarantee home loans, and they will increase fees to borrowers seeking LTVs of 75-80 percent. Increases in the cost of borrowing will reduce the pool of homebuyers with the expected result that buyers with strong liquidity and solid credit will be in the catbird seat. As of today, mortgage rates are still very attractive. Martha’s Vineyard local Island banks understand our market and are excellent at helping qualified buyers to create a loan package that suits their needs. Now is the best time to buy, waiting will only create memories of what could have been your dream come true.

I Love Martha's Vineyard

I have lived on Martha’s Vineyard part time and full time for over 40 years, and I have seen a lot of changes --- some good and some bad. For the most part the Vineyard has still maintained its New England charm and tenor.

When I was a little boy my family summered in the Hampton's on Long Island. It was a magical part of my boyhood, but when I went back a number of years ago everything had changed.

I love these two lines from an article that appeared in The Record this past Sunday:

“Overrun? Maybe. Devine? Definitely!”

And then there was this quote:

"Southampton, eat your heart out!"

Follow this link to read about Martha’s Vineyard --- A Great Hideaway from the Rat Race

The Housing Slump Isn't Over Yet After All.

The beginning of 2007 took off with a flourish of sales activity. Shrewd investors took advantage of market uncertainty successfully negotiating good buys for many of the better properties here. The prediction of low and stabile interest rates and a strong economy suggested a turn around in the housing market was eminent. Then came the subprime lending fiasco which had an overall negative effect on the market.

Sellers, realizing the pool of “qualified buyers” had shrunk over night finally started making serious reductions in home prices, but there were very few qualified buyers. Therefore, the typical spring flood of properties back onto the market was met by buyers unable to make a purchase or reluctant to do so believing the downturn was not over yet.

The balance of supply and demand at the lower end of market continues to be heavily weighted toward the supply end. Here is an article that appeared in this week’s Boston Globe that addresses the fact that the housing slump isn’t over yet after all.

However, at the high end of the market, where the ripple effect caused adjustments on some prime properties, well-heeled buyers fueled by generous bonuses from the financial market are carefully picking at the prime luxury properties.

All Real Estate Is Local, but that has not been the perception?

In David Lereah’s new book, “All Real Estate Is Local”, he references the investment mistakes his Grandpa made by listening to the national news instead of paying attention to ”local influences and activity” He goes on to say, “Whatever the national trends are with regard to real estate – whether they are booming or busting – what really matters is what the market conditions are in your region, town, or neighborhood.” David Lereah is Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

Starting in 2001 real estate speculation began picking up steam in certain areas of the country that were growing in popularity. These areas were primarily coastal cities on the east and west coast. It would be five years before this trend would run its course. Investors were quick to jump on board with the hope of making a quick buck -- and they did. Properties were selling before a shovel touched dirt or a hammer struck a nail. We saw this in the 80’s here on Martha’s Vineyard when the construction and housing market was out of control, but we learned from that bad experience and won’t let it happen again.

When the press started reporting the news that the Boom was over, they did so by painting a national picture of doom and gloom with a broad brush. We all listened to the reports. Prospective buyers relished the thought of getting a good deal, “a steal”, and regaining control of what had been a so-called seller’s market that had all but shut out everyone except the well-healed from the Vineyard real estate market. Sellers, on the other hand, started to panic but refused to give up their position. They fervently resisted lowering what, in most cases, were overly inflated prices based upon subjective personal opinions instead of factual market price analysis provided by seller agents.

We entered a buyer-seller standoff period where nothing was happening, except at the very top of the market. But even there activity slowed down and sales were few and far between. No one wants to overspend and appear foolish regardless of how much they are worth. The wave of panic continued to build while rolling from coast to coast, and everyone was talking about a “buyer’s market” whether the perception was true or not.

On the Vineyard, sellers continued throwing chum at the market week after week in the form of insignificant price reductions. So like any good bargain shopper, buyers continued to wait, wondering how low the market would go. Personally, from the beginning I saw this as an opportunity for a leveling of the market and never believed the negative hype as it pertained to Martha’s Vineyard. Water seeks its own level and it would just be a matter of time, I thought, before we reached that point.

All of a sudden, but not by surprise, there was a new specter looming on the horizon. Was the housing bubble about to burst? Buyers had been led to believe there was no end in sight for the hot market and prices would just continue climbing. They were drawn into a false sense of security and anticipation of assumed future gains. Greed and some very creative financing products also encouraged buyers to overextend themselves by committing to attractive short-term, low adjustable interest rate loans. This enabled them to get into the market with little or no money down. But in some areas of the country the market suddenly came to a halt and prices started to decline. Frantic buyers not wanting to lose money immediately started canceling new home sales contracts and in many cases forfeiting substantial deposits.

With prices now plummeting by double digit percentages in many popular cities, and adjustable mortgage rates going up as much as double at the first reset, many new home owners found it easier to simply walk away from their homes purchased with up to 100% financed loans they could no longer afford. This was the case in cities like Boston, Cape Cod, Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Ft. Lauderdale where there had been overly zealous growth, but it was not that way throughout the entire country.

On Martha’s Vineyard the rate of appreciation was above average but not even half of what it was in the 1980’s. There were only a handful of speculators here that might have been in jeopardy. The Vineyard has always been a pricey market and that is not by accident. People who “get the Vineyard” are passionate about wanting to live here and make emotional decisions; quite often paying a premium to be part of the unique Vineyard lifestyle.

It was not only the home buyer who was affected by the slowdown in the market. Existing home owners who were courted and vigorously encouraged to take equity out of their existing homes for that dream vacation to Hawaii or that slick new Escalade were finding themselves in an unexpected upside-down or negative amortization position. The news of a threatened foreclosure glut loomed heavily on the horizon --- but once again we should have remembered --- real estate is local.

When a homeowner cannot maintain their mortgage or sell their home to save themselves, the end result is usually foreclosure and over a million home owners in the US are facing that end today. The foreclosure process begins when a borrower is over 30 days late with a mortgage payment. The lender will usually send a letter of notice to the borrower along with notification to the state’s Land Court notifying them of an action to foreclose. This does not imply a fait accompli, as most borrowers are able to work out the loan with the lender before they lose their homes. With prices continuing to decline in some areas, options have become more limited. However, in Massachusetts, the number of foreclosures is not even close to what it was in 1992. Government leaders are now calling for state and federal assistance to subsidize aide to home owners threatened with foreclosure.

Although Martha’s Vineyard is a wonderful and very special place, like all good things, greed can play a major part in pushing the envelope. We experienced a period for many years where everyone thought they had the goose that laid the golden egg. Many properties came on the market for ridiculous prices, both at the very top and at the very bottom of the market. Still, we relied upon the market to have the last word, but the astounding reality was that there was always someone who would pay the price. Today this is changing to a great extent not only because of the perception of a more level playing field or buyer’s market, but also because buyers are choosing to have their own agency representation.

So where are we today? I believe we are at a tipping point in the Martha’s Vineyard real estate market, but it will not be without a little more pain. One of my pet peeves is there are too many substandard, poorly maintained buildings of no important historic significance for sale here that have outlived their economic and functional usefulness. There is an old real estate expression, “underneath it all is the land”, and in many cases that is where the value is --- not what sits on the land. I maintain that many of the 40, 50 and 70 year old structures should be removed and replaced with more attractive energy efficient “Green” construction. Sellers have to realize they can no longer expect to get $400,000 to $500,000 for a property with a dilapidated house or unheated shack, when the value of the land is almost half of that selling price. Buyers need to realize they are not going to be able to “steal” properties. They must have confidence that if they pay a fair price for a property, they will have a solid investment that will appreciate in time, but not overnight.

We have to come to the realization on Martha’s Vineyard that this is not a buyer’s market, but an opportunity for a balanced market. A market where properties are priced fairly and sellers have realistic expectations. However, the lower to middle-end of the market is distorted because we still have a number of sellers who are not realistic or serious about selling their properties; they’re just fishing. Their perception of what their property is worth, albeit uninformed or ill-advised, overrides the facts. There are three phrases I constantly hear that always make me smile: “The seller is motivated”; “The seller doesn’t have to sell”, and “The price is negotiable”. What the heck does all that mean? Does it mean the motivated seller will accept well below market value or the non-motivated seller is firm on the price or will only accept above market value? Does anyone in the market today assume that prices are not negotiable?

The pool of qualified pre-approved buyers at the lower end or entry level of the Martha’s Vineyard real estate market is drying up. Lenders are adopting much stricter guidelines for buyers with limited resources and marginal credit. If you were pre-approved for a loan last year you may not be eligible for that same amount today. A larger down payment may be required and you will most likely not get a loan approval without verifying your income. If you are contemplating a purchase this year, save yourself disappointment and wasted time for everyone by going to a lender and getting pre-approved for a mortgage. Believe me, you are better off knowing your pocketbook will match your expectations. Negotiations are difficult enough today and being pre-approved will strengthen your bargaining position.

I’m the owner of SplitRock Real Estate, an EXCLUSIVE BUYER AGENCY and to paraphrase a statement from a REALTOR® sponsored national ad campaign, real estate is my life. I know my business; I study it and I’m passionate about it. My perspective is unique because I view the market from the buyer’s vantage point, and my goal is always to arrive at a fair deal. I will do my best to protect my buyer clients and will look after their best interests. My task is to educate and counsel my buyer clients so they can make informed decisions they will be comfortable with. I encourage you to begin or continue your real estate education at www.SplitRockRE.com .

Martha’s Vineyard Real Estate Property Tax Bills for all Towns are posted

Property values escalated in 2004 and 2005 to record levels having a direct effect on taxes paid by Martha’s Vineyard home owners in 2006. Requests for abatements flooded the assessor’s offices and the tax matter became contentious. There are still some heated disputes unsettled and many property owners are in arrears, because they simply weren’t prepared for the staggering increase in their taxes -- some more than 50% from the preceding year.

You can go to my website for an explanation of what is generally called the "MIL Rate" and how to compute your property tax, and you can also view the present and past five years of tax multipliers. Here is a recent MV Gazette article that discusses the 2007 Property Tax Bills .

Have We Seen the Last of Real Estate Markdowns?

I realize the Boston market is not Martha’s Vineyard, so the demographic ingredient of people moving out of Massachusetts doesn’t affect our market. However, I think you will find the speculative forecasts given by three diverse professionals -- an economist, an architect and a real estate broker, to be interesting.
(Click here to view >) Market continues a slow adjustment

A Look Back at the Real Estate Market on Martha’s Vineyard

Now that 2006 is just a memory, and for some not a very pleasant memory, we look forward to what 2007 holds in store. Will it be more of the same or a better year for real estate and the economy? Employment still remains high and unemployment benefit claims have been stable for the last few months despite troubles in the manufacturing sector precipitated by the fall off in auto sales and the continued slow down in the housing market. Interest rates peaked midyear and appear to have settled as the Fed continues to hold steadfast in hopes of keeping inflation in check.

Sales of new homes are up, prices of used homes are starting to inch up again and the bloated inventory is starting to deflate, albeit very slowly. In a recent article in the Vineyard Gazette several friends of mine were interviewed for an article titled “Median Home Prices Fall on Vineyard as Real Estate Market Begins to Stall”. I find the title laughable as we have been stalled for quite some time and only within the last few months has activity begun to pickup again as we appear to have reached a floor in the market, shaky as it may be. The media continues to hype the housing bubble giving most buyers uncertain pause as they don’t want to be foolish and enter the market prematurely. Everyone is waiting for that magic sign from above that will say, “Start your engines”.

I think the important points are prices have finally come down slightly and the inventory is up despite the fact that those numbers are going to be confusing and will require thoughtful interpretation. The middle range that Ms Purdy is discussing has always been the softest area in the market, regardless of how strong or weak the market has been. I still maintain that this is an excellent time to buy if you’re prepared to be patient and negotiate strategically. If sellers believe nothing is going to happen for another 6 to 8 months, don’t you think they will be more receptive to negotiation than if they knew better days were only weeks away? More inventory means more competition and more choices for buyers, and that’s a good thing. Furthermore, if we accept the idea that potential buyers are going to rent until they are comfortable enough to purchase, this creates a strong opportunity now for anyone buying an income property. Normally I don’t recommend factoring income potential into financing a property. However, at this time it appears all signs point toward a very strong rental market for 2007. When clients ask me if I think they could rent the property they’re interested in I tell them, “You can rent a tool shed here for $600.00 a week”.

Another important point to make note of is home prices are not out of line comparing other areas on the Cape, the North Shore and South Boston area; it’s the wages that are out of line related to the cost of living on Martha’s Vineyard. If you compare the same jobs on-Island and off-Island, the wages are lower here and that’s driving a majority of the year-round labor force away. We’re returning to more of a second home and retirement market, the way we were back in the 1960’s.

Finally, if you are wondering about foreclosure opportunities, as Chris Wells said, the delinquency rate has not increased. A mortgagor usually has to be 90 days out before a bank considers starting a procedure. All our local banks are pleased to say they have nothing currently on their radar. I also look at foreclosure reports and the properties I see usually work out. Banks are very eager to do business and are introducing products to help prospective buyers. One such product regaining favor with buyers who cannot afford the average down payment is the PMI (Private Mortgage Insurance) mortgage. This will replace the ARM piggyback loans that were so popular when interest rates were historically low and stabile. Ask your banker.