President Obama’s NEW Housing-Aid Plan – who WINS and who LOSES?

The new Housing-Aid Plan, according to the administration, is estimated to cover as many as nine million mortgage holders nationwide. It has two main components.

PART 1: Loan Modification
The first part supports borrowers who have kept up with their mortgage payments, but have lost so much value in their homes that they don’t have the equity necessary to refinance. Therefore, they are unable to take advantage of the present record low interest rates, which are hovering around 4%.

You WIN if you have payments of more than 31% of your pretax monthly income and you can prove hardship.

You WIN if you occupy a single-family home and can prove the home is your primary residence.

You WIN if you have an unpaid principal balance of $729,750 or less.

You WIN if you have a mortgage originated on or before January 1, 2009 and make all the modified payments over a trial period of three months or more.

You LOSE if you are not about to default.

You LOSE if you are an investor with a home that is not owner-occupied.

You LOSE if you have a home that is vacant of condemned.

You LOSE if you have an unpaid principal of more than $729,750.

You LOSE if your mortgage is packaged into securities whose rules explicitly forbid modification.

You LOSE if you have loan servicers who can’t be reached or are unwilling to consider modification.

PART 2: Loan Refinancing
The second part of the plan is geared toward borrowers who are already delinquent in their loan payments or are in eminent danger of default and aren’t able to refinance, perhaps due to a decrease in the value of their home.

You WIN if you have loans owned or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

You WIN if you are current on your mortgage payments.

You WIN if you can prove the ability to afford the new mortgage debt.

You WIN if your mortgage balance is no more than 105% of your current estimated home value.

You LOSE if you have loans owned or guaranteed by a company other than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

You LOSE if you have been more than 30 days late on a payment in the past 12 months.

You LOSE if you can’t afford the new mortgage debt.

You LOSE if your home price has fallen so that the loan is more than 105% of the market price.

Good Property Opportunities on Martha's Vineyard

BANK OWNED PROPERTY (REO): This property was officially listed for resale by the lender on January 26, 2008 at an asking price of $564,900. The price was just reduced to $555,000, and the current town assessment is $697,100. The fact that the price has been reduced is standard procedure for a lender after 30 days without substantial interest in the property. This is a good sign for prospective buyers. The property is located in a nice neighborhood equidistant to all down-Island towns and is a lot of house for the money.

Click here to view property > Edgartown - 6 Mockingbird Drive

Everything is Coming Up Roses, Or Are They Tea Bags?

Rick Santelli was reporting from the pit at the Chicago stock exchange the other day and got everyone stirred up with his suggestion of a Chicago Tea Party . I thought it was marvelous and right on.

Here we are now with a $787 billion stimulus package that includes anemic elements like an $8000.00 tax credit for taxpayers buying a primary residence between Jan. 1 and Dec. 1, 2009. Single taxpayers making less than $75,000 are eligible. That tax credit doubles for married couples. Think about it, an 8k credit is just a drop in the bucket for a buyer in areas like Martha’s Vineyard, and no not everyone who lives here is rich. It’s just not enough. And what about the $75 billion mortgage relief plan the President announced. It’s not right. The Wall Street Journal says, "By investing in failure, the Administration will also prolong the housing downturn and make financing a home purchase more difficult for future borrowers." The New York Times says it is "a good start, but given the dire state of the economy, we fear it still may not be enough."

But what is enough and actually too much is the idea that people who did nothing wrong, the 92 percentile, are being asked to help the 8% that either had no business getting a loan in the first place or defrauded the banks intentionally out of sheer avarice. It’s the hard working people who are continuing to pay their bills even though they are suffering like everyone else today; they are really going to suffer.

Here’s a quick story I heard yesterday from a broker in Florida about one of those people you will be suffering for. This ‘investor’ accumulated no less than 20 properties through no-money down financing during the high time of the market. They did not and have not paid one cent toward an equity share on those properties; they had every intention of not owning the properties long term. The lenders began the foreclosure process about three years ago, but it takes time. In the meantime, this person is consistently making about $20,000 a month in rental income. There are hundreds of scenarios like this one. Why should we suffer for this kind of behavior? They should lose everything and go to jail. But if they go to jail, shouldn’t the enablers go with them? Yes, and that is why nothing will happen to them.

If you are wondering why the foreclosure machine is moving so slowly, let me give you a brief idea by way of another true story. This person is a first time home buyer who will most likely lose their home when their Alt-A loan resets. Mind you this is also in one of the areas where values have dropped by 50%. This person went through foreclosure prevention counseling and as instructed began the bureaucratic procedure with the lender for a loan modification. They spoke to a loss mitigation representative and complied with the instructions they were given. They supplied all the necessary documentation, both on line and via certified mail. They had the person’s name and extension number, but when they called to get a progress report after about two weeks, that person did not exist and both their cyber and paper trail no longer existed. They tried again filling out all the same information, etc. Again after a couple of weeks they contacted the LM department and that person did not exist. However, somehow they were finally able to track down the person that helped them. The representative told them, “You can jump up and down, get nasty and impatient but it will not do you any good. I have over 100 case files on my desk and you are just one of them in the pile. You’ll hear from us when we get to your case.” End of discussion. That’s just one person who has to deal with this enormous mess the government wants everyone to be responsible for.

Bringing it back home to the Cape and Martha’s Vineyard, here in Massachusetts the Warren Group reported the number of homes on Cape Cod that were actually foreclosed on last month was down 8.9 percent. This number is compared to January 2008. In exact numbers, there were 41 foreclosure deeds filed in January 2009 compared to 45 last year. In Dukes County, which is Martha’s Vineyard, the number of foreclosure deeds filed fell to 9 last month compared to 13 in January 2008. That is a difference of 30.8 percent. The experts are not sure what is causing this reduction in foreclosures, but it is a good sign as are the more realistic price reductions posted by the Martha’s Vineyard Information Network database. There are 467 single family homes currently on the market with a total inventory of 680 properties in all classifications. There are 72 single family homes that have been removed from the market since the first of the year. I can assure you everything is for sale, so if you want one of those properties just ask.

You Want a Great Deal, But Do You Really Want a Foreclosure?

Foreclosures represent a mammoth portion of today’s housing inventory. In RealtyTrac’s recently released 2008 Foreclosure Market Report, they showed a total of 3,157,806 foreclosure filings. The number of default notices, auction sale notices and bank repossessions reached 2,330,483 properties.

Up until now most people were of the opinion they could save huge sums of money buying a foreclosure property. However, more people are shying away from that process, and if they are willing to engage at all, they are demanding steep discounts averaging 25% from the listing price, and many are expecting to pay 50% less than for a non-foreclosed home. According to a recent Moody's Economy.com report, since the peak of the market several years ago home prices fell in 70% of all metro areas. Although the decline in most metro areas was modest, prices did decline by 5% in 116 metro areas and more than 20% in about 50 metro areas. In the most depressed markets, a buyer insisting upon a 25% discount doesn’t seem like that much for a distressed property. But this all depends upon how realistic the listing price is.

Banks are still requiring BPO’s as part of their preparation for marketing foreclosures, but the problem with that approach is they are looking back at the market for values, and in declining markets they need to look forward when pricing properties. The result in most cases is banks overestimate the listing price. All they know is what they are owed and that is all they care about. So what happens is properties sit on the market for long periods of time suffering from accelerated deterioration or vandalism. Someone will have to pay for the repairs and the bank does not want to assume any responsibility.

In December, Trulia and RealtyTrac published a survey indicating that in the seven months prior to the study the number of people interested in foreclosures dropped by seven percent to 47%. The first study reported in April 2008 by these market tracking companies recorded 69% of the buyers polled had a negative opinion of foreclosures. Since then the number has risen to 80%. On Martha’s Vineyard there are very few foreclosures and I continue to maintain that buyers can do better negotiating on a non-foreclosure property.